MONITORING, MODELING, AND MANAGEMENT OF LANDBIRD POPULATIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORESTS

OBJECTIVE - The objective of this project provides a landscape-scale adaptive approach to managing landbird populations of Pacific Northwest forests through a suite of management decision-support tools resulting from modeling avian demographic monitoring data (Manley 1993). This approach is consistent with Forest Service Tier 3 monitoring and emphasized in "Opportunities for Improving Avian Monitoring" released by the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative Monitoring Subcommittee (2007).

MONITORING RESULTS- Since 1992, the Institute for Bird Populations (IBP), through the continent-wide Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program, and funded by USFS Region Six, has collected demographic monitoring data on >100 landbird species breeding six national forests in USFS Pacific Northwest Region 6, hereto know as the the PNW MAPS dataset. Analyses of these data suggest that these forests are of regional importance in supporting long-lived, healthy, and productive populations of forest-dwelling Neotropical migrants, and other species of conservation concern. Furthermore, three of the six national forests (in bold below) are listed by the Wilderness Society among the top ten carbon sinks in North America (PDF). Click on a national forest to view results.

National Forest	Ranger District	State	Map
Mount Baker/Snoqualmie	Darrington	WA	JPEG
Wenatchee	Naches	WA	JPEG
Umatilla	Walla Walla	OR	JPEG
Willamette	McKenzie	OR	JPEG
Siuslaw	Waldport	OR	JPEG
Fremont-Winema	Silver Lake	OR	JPEG

MODELING APPROACH - We constructed species-landscape models (Nott et al. 2005) developed from the regional landbird demographic data collected through the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Since 1992, six stations have been operated on each of six national forests in Washington and Oregon tabulated below (also see station map or download Google Earth file). Monitoring stopped at Umatilla National Forest in 2008 but the other stations are still running (2010).

MANAGEMENT TOOLS - We provide land managers with tools that focus on multiple species of regional conservation concern and allow managers to a) estimate the expected health of populations in a given forested area, and b) assess the impact of proposed management upon those populations. The advantages of demographic monitoring are outlined in a document titled "Demographic Landbird Monitoring: A Precision Tool for Land Stewards".

Management can maintain or create quality breeding habitat at landscape scales but bird populations also respond strongly to variation in environmental conditions that are driven by climate and weather patterns. To accurately assess the efficacy of management these reposnes must be quantified and taken into consideration. Pacific Northwest MAPS demographic monitoring data have already revealed important influences of climate-driven weather systems on a) the wintering habitats of Neotropical migrants that breed in Pacific Northwest forests, and b) the pest dynamics of breeding habitats in those forests (Nott et al. 2002, website materials). These influences must be given careful consideration in formulating management goals and assessing success. This research was critically acclaimed by Beatrice van Horne (then Wildlife Research Program Leader, USDA-FS-R&D) in a ScienceNow article (08/08/2002). (read text version here)

IMPLEMENTATION - The decision-support tools require GIS support to spatially analyze a "pre-management" forested landscape which quantifies a set of relevant landscape parameters (e.g. forest cover percent). The values derived from the spatial analysis are plugged into multi-species management models to provide predictions of current population demographics, such as abundance, trend in abundance, and reproductive success. The proposed management is then simulated in a GIS system to provide "post-management" parameter values for the multi-species models. Managers may then compare and contrast the pre- and post-management predictions of population demographics. In addition, the models can be applied over the entire forest to identify areas of high landbird diversity and productivity. However, some "effectiveness monitoring" must be conducted within the managed area in order to validate the model predictions.

Obviously, any management action can benefit one or more species, but negatively impact others. These decision-support tools provide the ability to assess the impact of management upon the following 13 species of Pacific Northwest regional concern, including 8 Neotropical migrants.

Neotropical Migrants	Primary Habitat
Hammond's Flycatcher	Woodland
Western Flycatcher	Mixed Forest
Warbling Vireo	Riparian Woodland
Swainson's Thrush	Coniferous Forest
MacGillivray's Warbler	Successional-scrub
Wilson's Warbler	Riparian Woodland
Chipping Sparrow	Open Woodland
Lincoln's Sparrow	Wet Meadows/Thickets
Short-distance Migrants
Chestnut-backed Chickadee	Mixed Forest
Winter Wren	Coniferous Forest
Song Sparrow	Successional-scrub (mesic)
Dark-eyed Junco	Coniferous and Mixed Forest
Pine Siskin	Coniferous and Mixed Forest

BACKGROUND - The Institute for Bird Populations, through its Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program (1992-2001), effectively monitored 21 landbird species on six national forests within USDA Forest Service Region Six (see map). Of these 21 species, we identified 13 species of regional conservation concern whose demographics could be modeled and that were also included in federal, regional, or state conservation plans. They combined MAPS banding data for these 13 species with five regional spatial datasets: USGS National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD 1992, 2001), USFS Region Six canopy cover, USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED), Streamnet, and USFS Forest Health Protection Aerial Survey. From these we constructed landscape-scale (1000’s of hectares) management models which can be used to assess the impacts of land management on landbirds of regional conservation concern. An adaptive monitoring, modeling and management approach was followed:

1. Monitor annual numbers of adults and young by banding.
2. Quantify demographic parameters (survival and productivity) consistent with USDA Forest Service Level 3 monitoring requirements.
3. Quantify population changes and identify target species.
4. Model species-landscape relationships for target species.
5. Plan management action (or define alternate management scenarios).
6. Assess management impacts on multiple species using species-landscape models.
7. Implement a management plan consistent with local and regional avian conservation goals.
8 . Monitor the effectiveness of management plan in achieving conservation goals ("effectiveness monitoring") .
9 . Adjust or alter the management scenarios in an adaptive framework.

STATUS - In 1992, The Institute for Bird Populations (IBP) established a network of 36 MAPS demographic monitoring stations (red triangles) across six USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region Six national forests in Oregon (4) and Washington (2). IBP has since operated the monitoring network annually during the breeding season. In 2001, however, the ten-year baseline monitoring dataset was analyzed to determine a) the background values of demographic parameters (e.g. birth and death rates) and b) species-habitat relationships at landscape scales (1000’s of hectares). From these relationships we developed decision-support tools for management decisions regarding breeding landbird populations. Since 2004, six stations in the USFS Region Six MAPS monitoring network have been relocated to conduct effectiveness monitoring of management actions and provide validation data.

FUTURE - The USDA Forest Service Region Six has committed to supporting the monitoring portion of this project until 2012 thereby creating a 21-year long dataset. In the near future (2008) IBP is funded by USDA Forest Service to produce management decision support tools in the form of detailed species accounts (paper and electronic format) which include species-landscape management models for 13 species of concern.

The research and reporting elements of the project have not been continually funded such that the current species-landscape models are based on only 10 years (1992-2001) of MAPS data for 36 stations. These models require updating with more years of data which may show community shifts associated with succession of managed areas in which some stations were placed.

Since the start of this project in 1992 the forests have experienced extremely variable seasonal weather connected to El Nino (e.g. 1992 and 1998) and La Nina (1999, 2008) winter conditions as well as the influence of the recently highly variable Arctic Oscillation during the winter months.

It is essential that this research and reporting be funded to take advantage of an unique dataset that may help land stewards manage to accommodate the rapidly shifting avian communities that may result from global warming.

The project was coordinated at The Institute for Bird Populations:

CONTACTS - This project is a collaboration between IBP and the US Forest Service.

IBP: Phil Nott (pnott@birdpop.org)
MAPS Co-program Director
P.O. Box 1346, 11435 State Route One, Suite 23
Point Reyes Station, CA 94956-1346.
Tel: (415) 663-1436 FAX: (415) 663-9482

USFS: Barb Bresson R6 USFS/BLM (bbresson@fs.fed.us)
Avian Program Manager
16400 Champion Way
Sandy, OR 97055
Tel: (503) 668-1414 FAX: 503/ 668-1423

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS - We wish to acknowledge National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (Project No. 2002-0232-000). Federal funds for this challenge grant were provided by the USDA Forest Service. Non-federal matching challenge funds and in-kind donations were provided by the Firedoll Foundation, ESRI, Symantec Corporation, Adobe Systems Incorporated, and members and friends of The Institute for Bird Populations, especially one very generous anonymous donor. Funding for the 1992-2006 operation of six MAPS stations on each of six national forests in Washington and Oregon, and for the computer entry, verification, and management of the resulting MAPS data was provided by USDA Forest Service Region Six; analogous funding for the operation of six MAPS stations on the Flathead National Forest in Montana was provided by USDA Forest Service Region One and the Flathead National Forest. We thank Forest Health Protection of USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region, especially Julie Johnson, for help in obtaining and preparing the aerial (pest) survey data.

We especially thank Jennifer Taylor and Heather Chase of the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Lisa Norris, Grant Gunderson (ret.) and Barb Bresson of the USDA Forest Service Region Six, Alan Christensen of USDA Forest Service Region One, Ron Archuleta of the Washington Office of the USDA Forest Service, and Sandor Straus of the Firedoll Foundation for their excellent support and cooperation in making this work possible.

We thank various staff of the participating forests for their excellent help and kind assistance with the numerous logistical details that arise during field seasons at Mt. Baker/Snoqualmie (Darrington Ranger District), Wenatchee NF, Umatilla NF, Willamette NF, Siuslaw NF, and Fremont NF. Financial support for this program was provided by the Pacific Northwest Region (Region 6) of the USDA Forest Service; housing for the field biologist interns was provided by the individual participating forests. We thank the IBP supervising field biologists and the hundreds of volunteer field biologist interns who operated the MAPS stations over the years and collected the demographic data used in this report, and we thank IBP staff biologists, especially Danielle Kaschube, who provided logistic support to the field crews, and verified and managed the data. Finally we thank the MAPS cooperators and their assistants who operated 148 additional stations in the Northwest MAPS Region and whose data served in programs that allowed us to correct for missing effort.

Finally, we thank the Pacific Joint Venture for funding to create this website and complete the model reanalyses.